In the Filling Out the Line-Up Sheet article in the Strategies section I have a few suggestions about filling out the ideal batting order. There are many things to consider for a Scoresheet team – some of which also apply to real life teams. One of these is: 

4. The latest sabermetric consensus on batting orders goes something like this:

     1. highest OBA guy

2. best all-around hitter

3. high Slg., but low OBA

4. next best all around hitter

5-9 next best all around hitters

The thinking goes that often the number 3 hitter comes up with two outs and no one on base, so there is no point in wasting a high OBA in that spot. 

I’ve been dutifully following this advice, but I am wondering whether it is a mistake. Since the middle of May, my lead-off batter has been Mike Trout and my no. 2 hitter has been Miguel Cabrera. Those choices still make the most sense to me. However, those guys are so good, I found it hard to believe that my no. 4 hitter would wind up leading off more often than my no. 5 hitter. Perhaps, that is not the point. Perhaps, it is the fact that the number 3 hitter will lead off the fewest amount of times and that he will most often be batting with one or two outs already – reducing his chances of scoring no matter who is hitting after him. I am sure that is true, but I am not sure that trumps the fact that in most cases, the no. 4 hitter will eventually bat during the inning when Trout and Cabrera come up with no outs – or that the no. 5 hitter will lead off an inning more often than the clean-up (no. 4) hitter. 

Well, here are the facts: From May 18^th to August 8^th my Slick Silk Sox had 158 occasions when Trout came up with no outs and Miggy on deck. In 74% of those occasions, the no. 4 batter in my line-up did get to bat that inning. In 41% of the time, the no. 5 man batted. Looking at it another way, the clean-up hitter lead-off the next inning 26%, while the number 5 hitter lead-off 34%. 

Here is what I conclude: If your top three hitters have lower OBAs than mine (Curtis Granderson was my most often used no. 3 hitter with Adam Jones, then Edwin Encarnacion used generally against left-handers or if Granderson was hurt), then the amount of times your clean-up hitter leads off will be closer to the amount of times your no. 5 leads off. But, at an 8% difference, it seems well worth looking for the player with the higher ratio of OBA to Slugging to bat fifth instead of fourth. As for the no. 3 hitter, having a low On Base Average isn’t a terrible waste. I would group all of your best hitters who are not your lead-of man or no. 2 guy and reserve them for the middle of your order. Then among those, you would probably want to put the one with the highest SLG/OBA third and the one with the highest OBA/SLG fifth. 

Sabermetricly, the Yankees were half right to bat Roger Maris ahead of Mickey Mantle – as the 3^rd and 4^th hitters or the 4^th and 5^th hitters. Optimally, however, Mantle should have been the no. 2 hitter followed by Maris in the three spot. Let Elston Howard and Tom Tresh be the no. 4 and 5 hitters and drop Bobby Richardson and his .294 OBA below Joe Pepitone down to 7^th or 8^th in front of Clete Boyer or the pitcher.