Starting Pitchers
Who did we overrate – lesson to be learned?:
Harden – with elbow
and back injuries in ’06, should have known shoulder was next?
A. Sanchez – when a
22 year old jumps from 136 innings to 200: RED FLAG!
Bonderman – 20 post
season innings = 45 more innings than previous high at age 23?
Clemens – pitchers in
their 40s are time bombs?
Rogers – expect D.L. time from 42 year
olds, unluckily Rogers’ missed most of the year?
F. Garcia – who knew?
6 straight years of 200+ innings, then his arm seized
C. Lee – how do you
predict an abdominal strain? sorry, no clues
D. Bush – ’06
career highs in Innings and in K & BB rates led to a tired arm?
Loaiza – most unpredictable
pitcher in MLB – was even worse than ERA showed.
Millwood – history of
minor injuries led to hamstring issues led to less control? bad luck, too
Matsuzaka – disappointment
only compared to his hype; adjusting to MLB rotations?
Igawa – Japanese starters
have more difficulty adjusting to Major League Baseball?
Mussina – all Yankees
had hamstring problems; Mussina hit the wall at 38?
Hughes – hamstrings
halved his expected inning total; very young or very old = high risk?
Adam Miller – already
earned the “injury prone” label?
Sowers, Slowey, &
Howell – need another trial or two before sticking?
Haeger – takes many
years to master consistency with a knuckleball?
P. Martinez – shoulder
surgery: “miss 3 or 4 months” is usually very optimistic?
Colon – rushed his return from rotator
cuff surgery messing up his elbow and tricep?
Underrate:
Carmona – mid 5.00 ERAs
disguise what by other stats indicated a rapidly improving SP?
Guthrie – somebody was
bound to improve getting supervised by Leo Mazzone?
Bannister – in this
case, minor league pitching stats trumped tepid scouting reports?
McGowan – high K &
scouting reports finally paying off on 3rd MLB try?
Beckett – needs a year
to adjust to a new league & climate as when he was a rookie?
Sabathia
– rising K totals mean more than rising BB totals?
Lackey – durable and still improving?
Meche – rising Ks, improved
health, new team = new improved pitcher?
Marcum – adjusted to
MLB on third trial?
Greinke – whatever his
problem was, he is getting over it?
Relief Pitchers
Who did we overrate – lesson to be learned?:
Ryan – read reports
about a pitcher’s delivery before you decide he is injury proof?
M. Rivera – he was 38,
but really only suffered from an abnormally high BA/BiP?
J. Rincon – fell apart
because I was cocky enough to protect him as a 2nd reliever?
Zumaya –21 year old
rookie pitched 83 Ings. in 62 G; lucky it was just a worn finger?
Duchscherer – minor
elbow injuries lead to hip or worse problems later?
Calero – A’s haven’t
changed trainers, is it fair to blame them for sudden rush of injuries?
MacDougal – do not expect
injury prone pitchers to suddenly become injury resistant?
Farnsworth –there is
no Saberhagen Syndrome (every other year of excellence)?
Otsuka –rumor; Japanese
relievers have shorter careers; he pitched well for 3½ (was 35).
T. Gordon –shoulder
problem at end of ’06 , then rotator cuff expiration in ’07 at age 39?
Ray – does being
over-rated in the first place lead to elbow troubles?
Rodney – injury prone,
but was coming off a healthy year in the spotlight?
Underrate:
Guerrier – unexpected
improvement multiplied by lucky BA/BiP?
Betancourt – when fine
relievers get lucky with BA/BiP, their ERAs vanish?
Okajima – Japanese relievers
have an easier time adjusting? no .251 BA/BiP helps, too?
Papelbon – don’t
believe rumors about moves to the rotation?
Riske – evidently back
problems subsided?
Benoit – steadily improving
towards potential?
Accardo – Blue Jays
have one of the best pitching coaches in Arnsberg?
R. Perez – fine minor
league pitcher who didn’t show well his first MLB stint in ’06?
Downs – another GB inducing Blue Jay taking advantage of
McDonald & Hill?
CJ Wilson – foolish
new contract – after a low BA/BiP and low HR/9 due to 68 Ing.?
Seay – anybody can have
an outstanding “year” in just 46 innings?
Pitcher Summary:
In 2007 We Over-rated:
Pitchers
with elbow, shoulder, or bicep problems lead to other problems?
Stay away
from pitchers with a long history of injuries?
Pitchers
over 38 get D.L.ed more and can lose their effectiveness suddenly?
Relievers
can just break down for no apparent reason?
Don’t
believe those overly optimistic injury recovery timetables?
Young pitchers
really shouldn’t increase their MLB by more than about 35 Innings?
Japanese
starters have more difficulty adjusting to the Majors than relievers?
The good
year bad year Saberhagen Syndrome is not reliable?
In 2007 We Underrated:
Do your
homework, do not just look at the ERA to see how well a pitcher is pitching?
Even very
good pitching prospects need a 2nd or 3rd shot in the Majors before sticking?
Rising
strikeout totals may foretell a pitcher’s improvement the following year?
Relievers
are more subject to wild seasonal fluctuations in effectiveness?
Try to draft pitchers relievers on teams with the best pitching coaches? (Bos., Tor., Det., Min., Cle., and
perhaps still L.A. in roughly that order of American League
teams. K.C., Sea. and Tex. are much improved.)
In General:
Finishing the season with a strong August and September is meaningless.
Shortstops
Who did we overrate – lesson to be learned?:
M. Young – lesser defensive late blooming players age sooner?
Tejada – easing off the ‘roids?
Peralta – ’05 was an aberration?
Uribe – shortstops can have career years as 22 and 25? Shooting your help can be a drag?
Bo. Crosby – despite only 26, getting worse and getting hurt –
run away?
Lugo – either you adjust well to Fenway
or you adjust badly?
A. Berroa – overlook that he should be in his prime & notice he is steadily getting worse?
Zobrist – 183 AB and .573 O+S does not establish a player?
Wood – prospect with too many strikeouts per walk?
Underrate:
H. Ramirez – except when he
was held back in AA, he is still rapidly improving?
C. Guillen – we should wipe
out his Mariners era, and believe his higher BA/BIP rates?
O. Cabrera – better defensive
players with low strikeout rates worth hanging onto?
Renteria – better defensive
players during their 2nd year with a team a good bet?
B. Harris – just because he
was traded for a player to be named later doesn’t mean we
should ignore a heck of a season the previous year in AAA?
Secondbasemen
Who did we overrate
– lesson to be learned?:
Barfield – high K, low BB regressed
as a 24 year old and dominated by A.L. pitchers?
J. Lopez – high K, low BB regressed
as a 23 year old & returned to normal low BA/BIP?
Kendrick – can’t overcome
impatience in majors?
Underrate:
A. Cabrera – a 20 year old
in AAA should not be sniffed at no matter how overmatched?
Polanco – one among many overachieving
Tigers? hmmm
Br. Roberts – mentioned in
the Mitchell report? hmmm
Ellis – as Roberts, a slick
fielding injury recovered 29 year old having health & productivity
Grudzielanek – another good
defensive player surpassing his hitting expectations?
Thirdbasemen
Who did we overrate
– lesson to be learned?:
Chavez – stay away from players
with tendonitis?
Crede – stay further away from
players with bad backs?
Hillenbrand – bad fielders
with bad attitudes don’t get breaks?
A. Marte – low BB high K guy
downhill from his AA and AAA seasons at 20 & 21?
A. Gordon – sometimes rookies
need an adjustment season?
Teahen – what was that about
owning a skill? Never mind?
Inge – too many Ks per BB for
a fourth good season in a row at 30?
Underrate:
A. Rodriguez – superstars keep
finding ways to keep super?
Figgins – players with speed
skills really do age better or just a lucky BA/BiP season?
Lowell – ideal for Fenway or just a BA/BiP freak in ’07?
Firstbasemen
Who did we overrate
– lesson to be learned?:
Sexson – BA/BiP dropped completely
out of sight to this 32 year old 1B. Rebound it wasn’t.
Overbay – huge drop in ’07
BA/BiP – that happens even to slick fielding 30 year old 1Bs?
Garciaparra – sudden drop in
productivity from mid-season of ’06 just carried through?
Shelton – some managers don’t give a 2nd chance no matter how great a player’s
spring?
Underrate:
C. Pena – minor league stats
do mean something even after nearly 1700 AL ABs?
Kotchman – well, minor league
stats must mean something after only 350 AL ABs?
Garko – the Indians have a
great hitting coach?
Designated Hitters
Who did we overrate
– lesson to be learned?:
Hafner – should hush about
his wrists? should continue to bat in front of Victor?
Giambi – injuries (heel, foot),
age (36), and lack of ‘roids having their affect?
Piazza – did not adjust to
the AL? and at 39 the downhill speed has picked up?
Sweeney – back, elbow, wrist, oblique, and age
(33) have taken their toll?
Gomes – after
injury or being “solved”, wait till signs of life before re-investing?
Norton – yes, a career year
at 33 (’06) is only that?
Underrate:
Cust – five organization discard
finally got a shot; grab those AAAA players once they do?
D. Ortiz – God’s favorite
player? Despite a high ’06 BA/BiP, Big Papi did even better in ’07.
Catchers
Who did we overrate
– lesson to be learned?:
Mauer – catchers get banged
up, so don’t count on consistent huge success from them?
R. Hernandez – overused and
under-inspired?
Kendall – old (33-34), worn
out (7 straight seasons of 143 G) and already headed downhill?
LaRue – apparently still not
recovered from knee problem which dimmed his ’06 season?
Underrate:
Posada – his BA/BiP jumped
80 points at age 35-36! His LD% increased, but not by that.
Outfielders
Who did we overrate
– lesson to be learned?:
V. Wells –193 O+S drop! overly
secure new contract, torn labrum, or -48 points BA/BiP?
Sizemore – in 3rd
MLB year at 24, the pitchers catch up as the improvements slow down?
Damon – playing hurt takes
its toll? 33 year old defensively below avg. CFs get moved?
Matthews –was lucky and in
Arlington in ‘06’s? plus new contract = no syringes?
Baldelli – bad hamstring can
wipe out an entire season!?
DeJesus – no lesson here, he
just had a very unlucky year with his 40+ point drop in BA/BiP?
Crisp – fingers not the same
since broken? leaving Cleveland’s hitting coach is bad?
Kotsay – bad backs can lead
to spring training surgery wiping out two-thirds of the season?
Abreu – going downhill, but
we didn’t notice in ’06 due to an inflated BA/BiP?
JD. Drew – all his injuries
have left their toll?
Dye – .48 rise in BA/BiP at
age 32 = unrealistic expectations at 33?
Gibbons – used HGH, then coasted
back to uselessness over the last 2 seasons?
Nixon – keep it simple: just
don’t draft guys with bad backs until the very end of the draft?
Dellucci – slow healer is code
for doesn’t take steroids? - lost job due to hamstring surgery
Wilkerson – bad shoulder made
him worse in ‘05 at age 27/28, then continued downhill?
N. Cruz – avoid these guys
with high K:BB after they reach the majors?
Re. Johnson – dirty shirt types
get herniated disks more often? 50 point inflated ’06 BA/BiP?
Monroe – Ks increased by over 30% in ’06 – was that an omen for his ‘07 .150 drop in O+S?
Kielty – takes 7 mo. to fully
recover from his torn meniscus surgery? came alive in W.S.
Lind – if a job doesn’t
open for a prospect, does it kill motivation or indicate he’s not ready?
R. Sweeney – rapid ascension
reversed at 22: a bit of many reasons: luck, talent, W:K, org.?
B. Anderson – has not improved
since he was 23 in 2005 due to small W:K?
Underrate:
M. Ordonez – magic Tiger cream
or a 68 point BA/BiP rise? ‘07/’08 Ordonez = ‘06/’07 Dye?
Granderson – at 26, still improving?
- particularly in power; a high BA/BiP also helped?
B.J. Upton – with a .399 BA/BiP,
he wasn’t this good, but heed the wisdom of the scouts?
Suzuki – at 33 no sign of decline,
yet – plus, he just had one of his luckier years?
M. Byrd – each 1st
year in a league, he is really good? (lucky, too?) the opposite of Drew.
Lofton – speedy guys in great
shape just don’t lose their skills, even at 40!?
T. Buck – good to by ranked
high by TPA, MLB.com, Prjt. Prspt., BA, and Sickels? Injury mess?
F. Gutierrez – Indians not
afraid to play younger superior player over older declining ones?
Willits – CFs who hit .448
OBA in the PCL and .411 in his 45 ABs in the AL get the
first shots?
D. Murphy – 3 years in New England minors, this Texan rode high in the Rangers’ saddle?
Raburn – AAAA 2B can become
an outstanding 5th OF on the Tigers w/ .376 BA/BiP?
T. Perez – only 90 ABs, but
even this Tiger hit way over his head – by over .400 O+S! -
Buy all Tigers!?
Position Player Summary:
In 2007 We Over-rated:
players with chronic injuries especially bad backs and possibly hamstring problems, too
players with low BB:K
players coming off career BA/BiP
older players on their way downhill
former steroid users
borderline starters without much promise
overused catchers
In 2007 We Underrated:
players who take great physical care of themselves – especially speedy ones?
good defensive players
good AAA hitters
highly hyped struggling young MLB players
Detroit Tigers - and Cleveland Indians, too, in their first year as a starter
