Thanks
to Mays, Aaron, and Bonds as well as a dozen sluggers in-between, ever since I was a kid the all-time home run list has been
the most revered career total. Mays and Aaron moved Jimmie Foxx and Ted Williams down to the four and five spots while Banks,
Matthews, and especially Mantle approached them from just behind. Now that group has been knocked way down the list, while
Bonds challenges the very top:
755
H. Aaron
717 Barry Bonds (June 14, ’06)
714
Babe Ruth
660
W. Mays
588
S. Sosa
586
F. Robinson
583
M. McGwire
573
H. Killebrew
569
R. Palmeiro
563
R. Jackson
548
M. Schmidt
547 K. Griffey Jr. (June 14, ’06)
536
M. Mantle
534
J. Foxx
521
W. McCovey
521
T. Williams
512
E. Banks
512
E. Matthews
511
M. Ott
504
E. Murray
493
L. Gehrig
493 F. McGriff
475
S. Musial
475
W. Stargell
465
D. Winfield
464 F. Thomas (June 14, ’06)
462 J. Canseco
453 G. Sheffield
(June 14, ’06)
452 C. Yastrzemski
451 M. Ramirez (June 14, ’06)
451 J. Thome (June 14, ’06)
449 J. Bagwell
442 A. Rodriguez (June 14, ’06)
442
D. Kingman
438
A. Dawson
That
is the top 35. You can see beyond Ruth, Ott, Williams, and Foxx, all of these men have played in the last 40 years. A high
percentage of them are still playing or just retired. It is interesting Manny, Thome, Bagwell, and A-Rod are passed (or about
to) Dave Kingman. Every Hall of Fame player higher than Kingman on this list is a member.
A
hundred years ago when my grandparents were kids, Batting Average was the principle measuring tool for hitters. This was before Babe Ruth changed the game. Although, even when I was young, Batting Average still had,
at least, as much importance as home runs. Ty Cobb was 33 when Babe Ruth shocked the world with his 54 home runs as a newly
full time right fielder and toast of New York. Cobb kept
to his Batting Average dominance that has never been approached:
.367
T. Cobb
.358
R. Hornsby
.346
E. Delahanty
.345
T. Speaker
.344
W. Hamilton (Billy)
.344
T. Williams
.
. .
.334
T. Gwynn
.
. .
.323 V. Guerrero (June 14, ’06)
For
many decades Cobb also held the all-time record for Hits, Runs scored, and the “modern” record for Stolen Bases
- the other key career statistics of his era. Why Hits took on a greater notoriety than Runs, I don’t know, but here
are the top leaders of each:
Hits::
4256
P. Rose
4191
T. Cobb
3771
H. Aaron
3630
S. Musial
3514
T. Speaker
.
. .
2863 C. Biggio (June 14, ’06)
2777 Barry Bonds (June 14, ’06)
Runs:
2295
R. Henderson
2245
T. Cobb
2174
G. Ruth (Babe)
2174
H. Aaron
2165
P. Rose
2108 Barry Bonds (June 14, ’06)
2062
W. Mays
No one else is over 2000.
Stolen bases:
1406
R. Henderson
938 L. Brock
912 B. Hamilton
892 T. Cobb
808 T. Raines
.
. .
581 K. Loften (June 14, ’06)
Why
is it that MVP voters of the last several decades consider RBI more important than any other statistic, yet pretty much disregard
it when discussing career greatness? Top RBI leaders:
2297
H. Aaron
2213
G. Ruth
2076
A. Anson (Cap)
1995
L. Gehrig
1951
S. Musial
1938
T. Cobb
1922
J. Foxx
1917
E. Murray
1902
W. Mays
1881 Barry Bonds (June 15, ’06)
I
gave you the top ten here since Bonds is there and so you can see that five of the top eight were primarily firstbasemen!
Recently “done” Rafael Palmeiro is 14th on the list.
A
list of most RBI and Runs combined makes more sense as an all around measure of greatness than either list alone. So:
4471
H. Aaron
4387
G. Ruth +P
4183
T. Cobb CF
4072
A. Anson (Cap)
3989 Barry Bonds (June 15, ’06)
3965
W. Mays CF
3900
S. Musial
3883
L. Gehrig
3719
M. Ott
3673
J. Foxx
3660 C. Yastrzemski
3641
F. Robinson
3637
T. Williams
3544
E. Murray
3502
D. Winfield
3498 R. Palmeiro
3479
P. Rose 2B-3B-OF
3468
H. Wagner SS
3411
T. Speaker CF
3410
R. Henderson
3342
C. Ripken SS
3334
A. Simmons
3253
R. Jackson
3205
A. Kaline
3201
C. Gehringer 2B
3186
M. Mantle CF
3178
G. Brett 3B
.
. .
3046 J. Bagwell
2996 K. Griffey (June 14, ’06)
CF
2925 G. Sheffield (June 14, ’06)
2859 F. Thomas (June 14, ’06)
2822 C. Biggio (June 14, ’06)
2B
I
went to 27 on this list, because Gehringer and Brett were the top pure secondbaseman and thirdbasemen according to this stat.
Only Rose was higher who played both. However, secondbasemen Hornsby, Collins, and Lajoie are 29, 30, and 31 on the list.
Molitor is 34th. Schmidt was right in-between at 32. Other infielders close to this are Yount (37) and Matthews (42).
The
active players listed at the end fall in a cluster, too, from 36th to 51st.
The
top catchers would be much further down the list. Carlton Fisk had 2606 Runs + RBI, Berra 2565, Bench 2467, and Ted Simmons
2453.
Nowadays,
the hitting measure most readily used by stat fans is OPS (which I denote as O+S). Of course, this measures frequency of success
such as a batting average rather than an accumulation of success such as home run total. Well here are the top all-time O+S
leaders:
1.159
G. Ruth +P
1.116
T. Williams
1.075
L. Gehrig
1.052 Barry Bonds (June 15, ’06)
1.034
J. Foxx
1.014
H. Greenberg
1.006 M. Ramirez (June 15, ’06)
1.000
R. Hornsby 2B
.992 F. Thomas (June 15, ’06)
.982 M. McGwire
.978 M. Mantle
CF
.976 J. Dimaggio CF
.976 S. Musial
.973 V. Guerrero (June 15, ’06)
.973 J. Thome (June 15, ’06)
.965 L. Walker
.959 A. Rodriguez (June 15, ’06)
3B
.958 J. Mize
.957 Ja Giambi (June 15, ’06)
.949 C. Delgado (June
15, ’06)
.948 J. Bagwell
.946 R. Kiner
.944 W. Mays
CF
.943 M. Ott
.936 T. Cobb
CF
.936 K. Griffey (June 15, ’06) CF
.936 C. Jones (June 15, ’06) SS-3B-OF
.933 A. Belle
.933 E. Martinez
.932 M. Piazza (June 15, ’06) C
.
. .
.908 M. Schmidt
3B
.887 M. Cochrane
C
.879 C. Gehringer
3B
.850 J. Cronin SS
Two more without
enough at bats to officially qualify for this list (not sure what those qualifications are), who are 2nd and 3rd
among active hitters:
1.045
Pujols (June 21, ’06)
1.034
Helton (June 21, ’06)
As
you would expect with a rate measure, there is a disproportionate number of current players on this list, because they have
not played in the decline phase of their careers which would bring them way down the list. Going back to the all-time top
batting averages, though, it was the opposite. Vladimir Guerrero is currently 33rd on the all-time BA list. No one else is in the top 50. Not until the 50-100 rankings will you find Jeter, Ramirez,
Piazza, A-Rod, and Big Hurt. Obviously the style of the game as changed. Players have much more power, but don’t get
nearly as many hits. I’m sure the reasons for this are complex, but I wonder if motivation to achieve excellence in
the most revered statistics of the day is part of it. This reminds me of the story of Ty Cobb when pestered by the press about
not hitting home runs like Babe Ruth, boasted that he could hit home runs if he wanted, then proceeded to hit four homers
over the next two days. Of course, more likely it is the other way around. Since
hitting runs became such a more important talent, counting home runs and RBIs became more important.
What
would a career totals list look like that was a career accumulation of getting On Base and Slugging? Most simply it would
be Hits + BB + Total Bases:
12029
H. Aaron
11574
P. Rose 2B-3B-OF
11363
S. Musial
11299
T. Cobb CF
10813
W. Mays CF
10803
C. Yastrzemski
10784 Barry Bonds (June 16,
’06)
10728
B. Ruth +P
9996 T. Speaker
CF
9885 E. Murray
9833 R. Henderson
9761 R. Palmeiro
9736 F. Robinson
9625 M. Ott
9557 T. Williams
9547 D. Winfield
9481 C. Ripken
SS
9294 G. Brett
3B
9289 L. Gehrig
9267 P. Molitor
2B-3B-DH
9240 H. Wagner
SS
9136 A. Kaline
9082 E. Collins
2B
9054 J. Foxx
8975 A. Anson
8838 R. Yount
SS-CF
8793 R. Jackson
8721 P. Waner
SS
8680 R. Hornsby
2B
8659 M. Mantle
8532 H. Baines
8374 C. Biggio (June 16, ’06) 2B
.
. .
7294 C. Fisk
C
7120 T. Simmons
C
This
career stat seems to do a good job of rewarding players who were good at positions other than the primary “hitting”
position. You don’t have to hit as well at those other positions in order to continue playing in the majors. Meanwhile
all those hits, walks, and extra bases from those extended years get accumulated. Still, when you think that some one such
as Yaz is 6th on this list by extending his career a long time by playing first base at a level just barely over
replacement level, this list becomes unsatisfactory. The ideal career stat would take out replacement levels of stat accumulation.
That would be require a very complicated procedure of determining the replacement level for each year, each league, each position,
and ideally each home stadium.
I
don’t have the time or tools to do that. What would help would be to account for outs made in the process of accumulating
all those walks, hits, and bases. So, I did just that – subtracted ABs and doubled the hits to account for the outs
portion of the At Bats. That resulted in this top 10 (11 since there is a tie for 10th):
5202
GH Ruth
+P
4284 Barry Bonds (June 15, ’06)
4505
T. Williams
4061
T. Cobb
CF
4021
S. Musial
4009
L. Gehrig
3566
J. Foxx
3437
R. Hornsby
2B
3436
H. Aaron
3315
T. Speaker
CF
3315
W. Mays
CF
This
seems to be an excellent indication of all-time hitting greatness. However, does this look a little too slugger heavy? Is this a satisfying compromise between peak impact
and career length? I only looked at the top 100 leaders in total bases and the numbers drop quite steadily. There were three of
these players who only had 100-something points. I’ll guess there are no more than another 100 players who have between
100-500 points who were not in the top 100 of total bases, and maybe another 200 who have between 0-100. Everyone else comes
out negative. Surely, there have been more than three to four hundred hitters in baseball who contributed overall to their
teams’ line-ups during their career. If you start taking fractions of at bats and weighted factors on each type of hit,
you could get more accurate, but you’re already getting too complicated for most people. However, we are not “most
people”. So, I looked at the expected BA/OBA/SlgA of a typical replacement player at a typical position over the years.
I used .250/.300/.350. In 100 At Bats, that would produce 65 H+BB+TB and 75 outs. If this level is worth 0, then an out is
worth 65/75 of a base or .87.
And,
while we are at it, let’s throw in a base for a stolen base and take two away for getting caught trying. An out committed
trying to steal is more damaging than an out at the plate, as it has erased a base-runner. Now the only problem with this
stat is that Caught Stealing was not recorded until about 75 years ago or so. To be fair as possible to those ancient warriors
I gave an estimated 25% of the Stolen Base total for Caught Stealing of players who had, at least, 300 career Stolen Bases.
Those who had less, I ignored as typically their SB success rate was not as good. Then in creating this final player offensive
greatness list I ignored all Stolen Bases for players with less than a 67% success rate. Here are the top 75. Those players
below with estimated Caught Stealing have an asterisk (*). ^ indicates 19th century star.
5920
GH Ruth
+P
5353 Barry Bonds (June 15, ’06)
5300*T.
Cobb
CF
5152
T. Williams
4975
S. Musial
4695
L. Gehrig
4647
H. Aaron
4335
W. Mays
CF
4328*T.
Speaker
CF
4279
J. Foxx
20
4119
R. Hornsby
2B
3900
M. Ott
3788
M. Mantle
CF
3691
R. Henderson
3641
F. Robinson
3559*E.
Collins
2B
3405 F.
Thomas (June 15, ’06)
3377*H.
Wagner
SS
3348
C. Yastrzemski
3295 R. Palmeiro
30
3234
P. Waner
3204 J. Bagwell
3153
A. Simmons
3118
W. Boggs
3B
3051
P. Rose
2B-3B-OF
3109
H. Heilmann
3047
C. Gehringer
2B
3041
G. Brett
3B
3007*A. Anson (Cap)^
3015 G. Sheffield (on June
15, ’06)
40
3008 E. Delahanty^
2999 K. Griffey, Jr.(on June 15, ’06)
2987 M. Ramirez (on
June 15, ’06)
2979 E. Murray
2970
P. Molitor 2B-3B-DH
2958
A. Kaline
2956
J. Dimaggio
2925 L. Walker
2920
J. Burkett^
2911
T. Gwynn
50
2858
L. Goslin (Goose)
2833
N. Lajoie
2B
2828
J. Morgan
2B
2822
M. Schmidt 38
2801 F. McGriff
2770
T. Raines
2711
D. Winfield
2685
E. Matthews
3B
2623*R.
Connor^
2621
R. Carew
2B-1B
60
2579
W. Williams (Billy)
2567
W. McCovey
2563
E. Snider (Duke) CF
2534
G. Sisler
2515
H. Killebrew 3B-1B-OF
2498 R. Clemente
2497 R. Alomar
2426 S. Sosa
2421*S. Crawford
2404 W. Stargell
70
2383 M. Piazza (on June 17, ’06) C
2369 D. Evans
2302 S. Rice (not Jim 2228)
2288 C. Biggio (on June 17, ’06) 2B
2267
J. Medwick
After Piazza, probably no other catcher would even be in the top 100. I guess neither Bench nor
Cochrane’s peaks lasted nearly as long as Piazza’s. Fisk wasn’t a comparable hitter. Ivan Rodriguez didn’t
walk. The ranking as far as offense goes: Cochrane leads the rest at 1919, Torre
(who spent precisely half of his career catching) is at 1868, Berra, I-Rod, Simmons, and Bench are all in the 1700s, Fisk is only 1646, and newly Hall elected Gary Carter was only 1322.
Notice Honus Wagner is the only shortstop on the list. Ripken comes very close (79th)
with 2202. while Banks at 2103 and Yount at 2056 are very close behind him.
Of course, this is still not the ultimate greatness list. Lou Gehrig hit in a hitter’s era
in a stadium possibly designed for him. It seems unfair he should be ahead of Hank Aaron with nearly as many points hitting
mostly in a pitcher’s park in a pitcher’s era. Secondbaseman Hornsby played in a hitter’s era, while five
rankings down is probably a better secondbaseman Collins who had to smack those dirty old baseballs of the century’s
first decades. Besides equipment differences, park factors, there are differences in population of player pool, franchise
expansion, coaching and training, etc. And, where is Ozzie? Of course, no direct defensive consideration is made. This is
only career batting achievements in the context of the outs made in the process of accumulating bases. I welcome anyone trying
to put those achievements in all those other contexts. I know some stats such as Win Shares have been devised to neutralize
them as much as possible, but seem to have other deficiencies that I don’t wish to go into in this essay. In the meantime,
I think this is a more satisfying look at how much the greatest hitters contributed to their teams’ offence than any
single famous milestone list.