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Prospects: Expectations, Initial and Long Term Success
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For example: Hinske vs. Blalock

Don`t be dismayed by the poor performance of your prized rookie - that is if you are in a perpetual AL Scoresheet League and you own Mark Teixeira or Jeremy Bonderman. Teixeira owners don`t have to look far to see why. Fellow Texas Ranger and thirdbaseman Hank Blalock was expected to be the Rookie of the Year last year and completely flopped. So far this year, he had been gunning for MVP! It would not be a surprise to see the same thing happen to Teixeira next year. Meanwhile, last year`s Rookie of the Year - another thirdbaseman by the name of Eric Hinske - has been less than stellar so far this year.

 

Let`s go back a few years and compare the players who were expected to be American League Rookie of the Year Candidates in 2000 with the players who actually were the top Rookie of the Year candidates in that League, and those from that class who are probably the best right now:

 

Top

Expected

2000 RotY

Top

Actual

2000 RotY

Top 2000

Rookies

in 2003

R. Mateo

K. Sasaki

V. Wells

Mike Lamb

A. Kennedy

K. Wells

D. Jimenez

Mark Quinn

M. Buehrle

N. Johnson

Steve Cox

K. Sasaki

Ed Yarnell

K. Wunsch

F. Cordero

Ramon Ortiz

Lou Pote

A. Huff

Matt Riley

B. Molina

N. Johnson

R. Anderson

C. Richard

B. Molina

K. Wells

Ramon Ortiz

Tomo Ohka

F. Cordero

Hector Ortiz

Ramon Ortiz

V. Wells

Josh Paul

D. Jimenez

Dee Brown

Adam Piatt

A. Kennedy

Steve Cox

Mike Lamb

Robert Fick

A. Huff

A. Huff

Lou Pote

Robert Fick

J. Canizaro

K. Wunsch

A. Kennedy

L. Barcello

D. Davis

 

It looks to me that the list of Year 2000 rookies who doing the best now resembles the list of prospects who were expected to do best in 2000 about as closely as the list of rookies who actually did do the best that year. Sasaki and Kennedy are still outstanding in this class. However, D`Angelo Jimenez, Kip Wells, Nick Johnson, Francisco Cordero, and Vern Wells all faltered in 2000, but are now playing about as well as was expected of them. Most of the surprises in 2000 following Sasaki and Kennedy have fallen off: Quinn, Richard, Hector Ortiz, Josh Paul, Canizaro, and Barcello.

John Carter