Join me, please, in celebrating my
Slick Silk Sox of A.L. Robinson’s 12th championship, 16th
year with the league’s best record, and 19th division title in its
22 year history. By going through the steps I made to build my 2012 team, I
hope to provide insights into my strategies (and degree of luck). I’ll even
provide a lesson learned for each move. Actually, I should write another essay
on all the mistakes I’ve made. That would provide even more lessons.
Some Scoresheet leagues claim to be so
competitive that the only way to win a championship is to concentrate all of
your talent towards peaking at around the same time, then burn that team down
as soon as it slips and rebuild again. Well, that has never been my style and
A.L. Robinson is as competitive as any league. Owners in our league do very
well in other leagues including some of the most notoriously competitive
leagues. Oh, sure, A.L. Robinson was probably just an average league in its
early years during the first half of the 1990s, but it has slowly become
stronger and stronger. Not only are its long time members more and more
experienced, but we have made a concerted effort to replace outgoing members
with only demonstrably outstandingly bright baseball minds or proven top notch
Scoresheet managers. That said, A.L. Robinson is a private league and a former
Canadian Scoresheet League that limits the net number of draft picks traded or
acquired. That prevents teams from doing the complete scorched earth rebuilds
and outlandish pennant pushes that I’ve heard some teams do.
My team did go through a
mini-rebuilding phase. Those three years that I did not win my division came
consecutively. They were all second place winning (> .500) teams, but no
wild cards. That enabled me to get some mid Round 14 draft picks – two of which
worked out decently: Matt Wieters and Adam Jones. The last two years have been 103
win seasons each with accompanying championships – and they could maintain that.
They have Mike Trout, Evan Longoria, and no starters over 32. I expect big
things from Dylan Bundy soon.
Another difference between the old
Canadian leagues and standard U.S. leagues is that we used to disallow
acquiring Rule IV June Amateur Draftees until the following winter. I’m not
sure what effect that has had. I have been able to draft Trout, Segura, Bundy,
and Erlin under the American rules despite never having one of the earlier
picks in the supplemental round following the Rule IV June draft.
Here’s my team with the picks &
trades that led to them:
Felix Hernandez – R28 in
’04 after one professional season in the low minors – as a 17 year old; Baseball America ranked him #30.
Sickels gave him a B+ and said he “may be the best pitching prospect in
baseball a year from now”. Sickels was bang on. King Felix became the number 2
prospect behind only Joe Mauer. That June at the age 19 and 2 months he joined
the Mariners’ rotation where he has taken his regular turn ever since. With all
those other scouty guys worrying that Hernandez’s pitching motion would send
his career to an early grave, I am lucky that I had too much inertia to pass
his risk onto someone else.
Lesson: Of course, there is such
a thing as a pitching prospect – they’re just a degree more unpredictable.
Cliff Lee – R24 in ’08.
Lee was a decent starter in ’05 & ’06, then a disaster as a 28 year old in
’07. That year Lee suffered from an abdominal strain, although that did not
nearly affect him in 2010. He’s been a pitching ace ever since I drafted him.
Cliff Lee has changed real life teams four times since I drafted him. I’m sure
glad we don’t have to worry about salaries and free agency in Scoresheet. The
two cross-over limit is as close as I want to get to that – and that is just
Lesson: Don’t let an injury filled year
scare you away, if it is not a career inhibiting injury. Besides that, I was
just lucky with Lee. You win some, you lose some.
C.J. Wilson – R17 in
’10. An outstanding reliever in ’07 & ’09 with bone spur surgery
in-between, the Rangers were giving the 29 year old a shot in the rotation.
Wilson had 33 starts his first year in the role, then led the league in starts
with 34 these last two seasons. He looked like a Cy Young candidate in the
first half of 2012, but struggled in the second half and is having bone spurs
Lesson: Draft pitchers from the
Rangers, Athletics, or Rays. Over the Mike Scioscia years, the Angels have been
pretty good, too.
James Shields – had to trade Gio Gonzalez and Mike Young for Shields
last winter due to x-over overload. Gio was my R15 in ’10 as the 24 year old was just establishing himself in
I liked his strikeout rate despite only just making it into BA’s top 100. Shields has been up and
down, but I’m betting on more consistency from him. Mike Young was tantamount
to my 2011 championship as I was able to use him to fill a hole at second with
impact hitting. However, I had no room to keep the aging former all-star regular.
He cost me Matt Wieters, who was expendable due my having Alex Avila, who was
having a far better year last year. Wieters had been my catcher since his
call-up in May of 2009. In 2008 before he faced a professional pitcher, he was
my highest pick ever R14.5 - after
the top three x-overs Miggy, Salty, and J.D., then David Price.
Lesson: Over the years, my
pitchers have been consistently around the top of the league. My mantra is: strikeouts,
Alex Avila – R18 in
’11. He looked promising after his call-up in 2009 – an overachieving Mike
Piazza type with better defense. He batted a very un-Piazza like .656 OPS in
2010. I got lucky with him in 2011 and should have cashed in on his high Batting
Average on Balls in Play. Yet, I’m a Detroit Tigers fan and think Alex Avila
has the ideal make-up to excel as a Major League catcher. I like having players
that I like on a personal basis, so I didn’t have a strong will to unload him
after his lucky season. What A.L. catcher is significantly better, anyway?
Mauer would drive me crazy with all his injuries, but he keeps coming back and
Avila hasn’t exactly been DL free. 2011 was the only year he played more games
Lesson: It is OK to favor those
serious live-for-baseball types. They generally do surprisingly well in the
long run. Well, perhaps, that is a perception not a lesson, so never mind. The lesson
is that BABiP is the greatest new stat since On-Base Average, if you know how
to use it.
Jesus Montero – R24 in
’09 – from the low minors and no. 38 overall prospect (BA). He’s been in the top 6 ever since. Now
that he’s blown his
rookie status, I may have to choose between Avila and Montero: overachiever vs.
an underachiever, so far, in a pitcher’s park. Gerald Laird was a smart May
supplemental pick R38 – just in time
for a brief Avila DL stint.
April or May are the best months to pick-up your third catcher.
Miguel Cabrera – acquired last winter principally for Jose
Bautista – my R21 in 2010. As you probably
recall, Bautista’s power came to life near the end of 2009. Of course, I didn’t
suspect he was on his way to such stardom, but he was having a good spring, so
I took a chance that he really did improve. Miggy is two and a half years
younger than Joey Bats. At the trade, he had stopped drinking and would remain
a corner infielder where I needed someone, while Bautista was getting moved
permanently to the outfield. I had to include Billy Butler and Lorenzo Cain,
but got back two picks R16 & R38 – both of which ended up busts (Johnny Giavotella
and Xavier Avery), while Butler had a very nice year. I’m not complaining.
Lesson: Sometimes those hot
streaks are real improvements. Look for a stable BABiP and some work with a
successful hitting coach.
purposes at the end of this essay, I should credit
Butler for, perhaps, 2 of Cabrera’s 10 value points. In that case, Butler goes
back to a pre-2008 trade that came with Fausto Carmona (now known as Roberto
Hernandez) for Mark Teixeira. There’s a bad trade, although, I’d say Butler is
finally the better player from 2012 on. Teixeira came in a pre-2003 exchange for
Jason Giambi. I landed Giambi in one of my better trades for Rusty Greer before
the 1999 season. Greer was my R16 in
1996, who had a nice rookie ¾ season in 1994, then sophomore slumped to just
average hitting in 1995. From ’96 to ’99 his age 27-30 seasons, he was a
regular .315/.400/.500 OBP guy.
Aaron Hill – acquired a month into the 2011 for Doug Jennings. Hill
had just turned 30, but I liked him more than Kelly Johnson (same age) who I
could have had instead. It’s not that I have more faith in the Diamondbacks’
Ken Towers over the Blue Jays’ Alex Anthropolis – perhaps, the opposite. I just
couldn’t ignore how well Hill had been doing since he was traded to Arizona
(with John McDonald for Kelly Johnson). Sometimes a new hitting coach, a new
manager, etc. can bring the best out of a struggling player. Jennings was a
prospect I picked up during that brief rebuilding phase I went through – when I
traded Jorge Posada at the 2007 deadline. Posada was having a monster season
while turning 36. He had been my catcher since late 1998 when I made a
two-for-one trade to lock him up during his first year as the Yankees’ primary
catcher. One of those two Don Wilson was the catcher I was upgrading from – an R15 in ’96. The other was
Roberto Hernandez - my closer the previous four years – last drafted R18 in ’96. He was having an off year
in ’98 after having two awesome years in ‘96 & ’97. I drafted two
secondbasemen in R16 of 2012. One Giavotella couldn’t keep his job over Chris
Getz of the Royals and the other Gordon Beckham was just horrible this April.
However, he did re-coop well enough to make a nice back-up.
Lesson: It seems to me Scoresheet
players should love trades, so I am hoping you found the chain of trades that
led to Aaron Hill and Billy Butler interesting. It was part of my baseball
upbringing. I can tell you from memory the chain of trades that led from the
Tigers’ shortstop of the 1950s to their shortstop in 1970: Harvey Kuenn for
Rocky Colavito (the famous batting champ traded for the home run champ) for
Dave Wickersham for Dennis Ribant for Don McMahon for Cesar Gutierrez.
Alcides Escobar and Alexei Ramirez – I took a shot on Alexei in
2008 and later traded him for Coco Crisp, then got him back before the 2010
season for Brandon Morrow, who was my R18
in 2008. Ramirez was drafted R26 that year. Ramirez gave way to Escobar this
year, who I drafted R19.
Lesson 1: Look at that
Morrow/Ramirez trade. Don’t hang onto guys just because you previously
overvalued them. It is natural to think, “I paid dearly for him, I’m not going
to give him up for something so much less”. But, you have to fight that ill
logic. It seems even Major League teams fall into that trap. It is better to
sink those costs. However, don’t swing too wildly with your evaluations of
healthy veterans, but constantly update you evaluations of players coming into
2: I drafted three middle infielders in rounds
16 to 19 this year. The first one (Giavotella) was a complete waste. The second
(Beckham) was barely adequate. The third (Escobar) was surprisingly good. That
is about all what you should expect from three moderately high picks.
Even Longoria – A third overall pick in real baseball, Longoria
quickly powered his way up to AA as a 20 year old. Baseball America ranked him the 7th best prospect in
world. He became eligible to A.L. Robinson owners that February of 2007 and I
drafted him in R16. Daisuke and
Abreu were the top newcomers to the A.L. that winter. Adam Loewen, who mastered
all levels of minor league pitching, but struggled to the extent of a 5.37 ERA
in 112 rookies innings with Baltimore was snatched up third overall. I took
Andrew Miller with my first pick – he was BA’s
no. 10 guy, but like Loewen – already getting a taste of the bitter Majors. The
unexciting but often necessary Kevin Millwood was my R15. It seems it was just
one of those lucky drafts that Longoria was still available on the
third/(officially 16th) round. Longoria became my regular
thirdbaseman a season and a quarter later after Tampa Bay delayed the start of
his Major League service clock as long as they could.
Lesson: Obviously position
prospects are more reliable than pitching prospects – and I’ve already alluded
to that in a previous lesson, so I will go with: count on Tampa Bay bringing up
their top level prospects a little later than most teams. This isn’t
necessarily a bad thing for Scoresheet GMs as it means generally that player
won’t have a year of struggles while losing their prospect eligibility as often
as most prospects. That is especially good for strong teams that wish to
perpetuate their contending years.
Edwin Encarnacion – Longoria got hurt early in the year (2012) and
I was playing a shortstop Alcides Escobar at third base in his place. That was
because my back-up first-baseman Mike Carp also got hurt, so it was no help to
move Miguel Cabrera over the diamond. My team had the best pitching in the
league, but my hitting was middle of the pack at that point. The opposite would
be true in the second half. My hitting took off when I acquired EE. (At the
same time Mike Trout blossomed into a superstar, I drafted Brandon Moss, and
Jesus Montero started to hit. Oh, well.) The trade was made around the start of
July, so Encarnacion only shown a half season of impact (.950 OPS) hitting
after 6 full seasons of just average hitting. I decided the improvement was
real anyway. He cost me my ace lefty reliever Jake McGee (I had two others:
Darren Oliver and Jose Mijares) and two prospects: Robert Erlin and Jean
Segura. McGee himself was protected as a prospect having finished 2011 just
under the career inning limits. He was my R28
in 2010. Segura was an R23 in 2011,
while Erlin was my 2nd to last pick in August of 2011 (R43).
The obvious one here is a repeat of
the Bautista lesson, so instead I will point out that probably the most
significant thing you can do to make yourself a successful Scoresheet manager
is to be relentless at looking for ways to make sure your team is as good as it
can be. I’m not talking about finding the perfect metric to gauge future performance;
I’m just talking more about doing everything you can with what you already know
to find a way to improve your team. The easiest way to do that is to determine
your biggest hole and (without creating another hole, of course) keep looking
for ways to fix it until it is fixed. You all know you should do that, but do
you think about when you are showering or walking to work? Is it your primary
daydream? I have no other life.
Curtis Granderson – the third long-lasting addition to my regulars
in 2008 after King Felix and Longo was Granderson. This was driven by an injury
to Vernon Wells more than a love of Grandy – although I do have strong
admiration for him as a person (and at the time: a Tiger). I gave up my much
coveted corner outfielder Nick Markakis to get him. Markakis came to me before
2007 with Troy Glaus for Manny Ramirez and David DeJesus. Manny was considered
the top prize of the deal, but Markakis and Glaus were the 2nd and 3rd
most valued players of that deal. Markakis just turned 23 with his rookie
season of .799 OPS behind him. Manny was 34 ½ with a 1.058 OPS and had played
his entire Scoresheet career for me up to that time. Despite the fact that
Manny had destroyed both AA and AAA in 1993 while turning 21, I was able to draft
him in 1994 with the last pick of the second round R15. In those days, we were only allowed to keep two prospects.
Most of the managers had far more shallow baseball knowledge than our managers
now and the prospect craze was nothing like what it has grown to.
Don’t you hate it when another
manager’s interest in one of your players makes you want to keep him even more?
I do, but it is understandable and prudent – and I’d be hypocritical to be
critical of that practice (which I have been). I was almost ready to let go of
Granderson after two sub all-star calibre seasons in ’09 and ’10 – especially
since in 2010, he traded his navy Old English “D” on white for a black Old
English “NY” on pinstripes. However, one manager – my division rival - inquired
about him and enlightened me to the fact that he had a great September after an
adjustment to his swing – just as Jose Bautista had the year before. Hmm. I
think I’ll keep him, thanks.
Adam Jones – I originally drafted Jones in 2006, then traded him
for some pitching in a late season pennant push. After 203 Major League games
with two organizations and with only a .711 OPS to show for it, his manager – a
friend who found Scoresheet required more expertise than he had time to give,
let him go. Jones was only 22. Well, perhaps, that’s not outrageous, but I was
certainly happy to scoop him back into my fold with my first (R14) pick of 2009.
Have the right amount patience with
young highly touted position players. If a player shows no sign of improvement
– not even an minor injury camouflaging his improvements, then unload him.
However, Jones has improved slightly every year. This year (2012) he finally
took a big step until an injury brought his stats closer to previous norms.
Mike Trout – How’s that for the very last player taken (R44) in 2009? At that point he was
overall pick from the June draft a couple months earlier and had killed two
levels of Rookie League ball. Kevin Goldstein gave me the heads up on Trout
through Baseball Prospectus.
Well, Goldstein was hired by the Astros, but BPro is trying to keep up what he was
doing and then some. Despite the profound personal pain due to their editor Joe
Hamrahi never answering my e-mails, I must honestly recommend subscribing. If
not, there may be other prospect pickers who could keep you abreast. Or, just
check on all the available no. 1 June draft picks each August and take a chance
with your own common sense. Trout – a 17-turning-18 year old centerfielder with
26 stolen bases and 4 caught stealing hitting over .900 at two different levels
of professional baseball. You have the last pick. Who needs a scouting report?
Brandon Moss and Rajai Davis – Not only were Longoria and Carp
hurt, my top substitute outfielder Nolan Reimold was out indefinitely as well.
They guy I drafted in May to replace Reimold (Xavier Avery) was sent down the
next week. So, instead of trying to snag the next superstar from the 2012 June
draft – which apparently was a weak draft, I shored up my bench with outfielders
Davis (R40) and Moss (R41). They were a good pair, in that
Davis is good defensively and bats righty, while Moss bats lefty, can play
firstbase, and mashed AAA. Davis has the added bonus of playing for my local
team (Toronto) and being the best position player currently in the American
League from my home state (Connecticut). (No, Toronto is not in CT, I grew up
there, but have lived my entire post-bachelorhood in Ontario.) Moss continued
to mash the American League. If I knew he was going to be that good, I wouldn’t
needed Encarnacion. I could have played Moss at first and moved Miggy to third.
Moss ended up with only 75 at bats for me.
How well a player does in real life is not a
complete reflection on his value to you. A great season only helps if you see
it coming and make room for it in your line-up.
Dave Robertson, Mike Adams, Greg Holland, & Kelvin Herrera – I
protected Robertson after drafting him R18 in 2011 – same round which netted
Alex Avila. Technically, the Robertson pick was payment for Ben Zobrist – a
player I had mistakenly determined that I could not protect. However, I
couldn’t whip up any interest in Delmon Young who I kept instead. In 2010 Young
had his best year so far. Zobrist had by far his worse since he became a
regular. Sadly I traded Asdrubal Cabrera for him the winter before.
we had just two supplemental drafts of four players each.
Asdrubal Cabrera was taken with my second pick (R41) in that July draft. At that point he was a 21 year old still
in AA or, perhaps, recently promoted to AAA. I have to confess I am having
trouble remembering why I drafted him so enthusiastically. He was called up to
the Indians in early August and earned a starting job. Perhaps, BPro’s Goldstein alerted me to his
hotness and I may have brrn counting on his being a full timer in 2008 for the
price of a rookie slot. He earned his keep ever since and took a big step up in
value in 2011. Yeah, I fumbled him, but, at least, I have Dave Robertson to
show for him.
1: Just as it is good to know when a
player is really improved or just having a career year or month, etc., it is
good to know when a player is just having an off year or two, etc. or is
permanently in decline. Zobrist did have a low BABiP in 2010, but not so low as
to explain the offness of that season. He hit much worse the 2nd
half of the season as his slightly disappointing first half, so that gave us no
clues. Frankly, I’m not sure what the lesson is other than we shouldn’t give up
on a position player still in his late twenties unless his decline has been
fairly steady for several years.
With a few
extra picks, I was able to afford loading up on top
notch relievers. Adequate, but slightly disappointing Mike Adams came R15. A complete bust Sergio Santos came
R17. I couldn’t resist drafting Greg Holland at the bargain price of R21. Then, I took my best reliever (if
I had only known to use him as such) Kelvin Herrera at R28. Despite the injury to Santos, that is a pretty darn good
return on the relievers I drafted – which was equally good with the lefties I
2: Relievers are
not as unpredictable as you may think. I try to keep my Strategies pages up to
date, if you want to try my methods.
Jake McGee, Darren Oliver, Jose Mijares – If you have read
everything, so far, you might remember McGee was part of the Sept. ’07 Jorge
Posada package that brought Desmond Jennings (who brought me Aaron Hill). And
you might remember that I traded McGee in the mid season 2012 package for Edwin
Encarnacion. Well, I got him back when Oliver and Mijares were having bad
months and I was gearing up for the post season. I got back Robbie Erlin
portion of the EE trade, too, but not Jean Segura – although, I did get my
trade partner’s R44 thrown in – all for Matt Garza.
and Mijares recovered to have nice Septembers, so the
trade was probably not worthwhile. Lefties are a bit more expensive than
right-handers. I took Oliver on R24.
I traded my R39 for an extra R41 –
and a higher draft slot and picked up Mijares then.
players is an effective way to acquire talent for a play-off run. All except
the elite prospects are just trading chips used like draft picks to even out
Matt Garza, Colby Lewis, Tommy Milone, Felipe Paulino – I have
never had so many plausibly all-star calibre relievers at once: EIGHT of them!
It is very rare to have 8 starters who are both healthy and pitching in the
Majors, let alone all having below average ERAs. My fortune didn’t last long. By
the end of July, Garza, Lewis, and Paulino were gone for the season and the
league started to catch up with Milone. So, I hardly used Lewis or Paulino at
all, and my team got the worse of Milone. (C.J. Wilson pitched the second half
with a bone spur, while Felix Hernandez imploded in September – but, please, do
not feel sorry for me.) Garza was my first pick in the July supplemental draft
of 2006 (R40) – as he had already
shot up three levels that summer and was dominating AAA. He later pitched 50
innings for Minnesota breaking his prospect eligibility. He didn’t return to
the Twins rotation until mid season the next year, but was consistently good
and healthy for the next five seasons. I was shocked Colby Lewis was left
unprotected last winter and immediately snatched him up (R14) tossing my well planned draft strategies in the recycling
Milone came into my fold R18 and I
took a flyer on Paulino at R23.
You’ve heard the saying, “you can never have
too much pitching”, but that’s too easy. Um, I’ve already mentioned how you
should play favorites with the Rangers and the Athletics. I don’t play N.L.
Scoresheet, but it appears obvious that the main reason the Giants and Cardinals
are where they are now (fighting each other for the N.L. championship), is because
they are even better at getting the best out of their pitchers. No, I’m going
with: don’t underrate those late season supplemental picks. Neither Garza,
Trout, nor Asdrubal were on the top 100 prospect lists the winter before they
had their break out seasons.
Phil Coke, George Kontos, Alfredo Simon – these three fine
relievers were of particular value because they could come in before the fourth
inning. Coke was my R25 – and served
as my early lefty – especially after I needed Milone for the rotation. I took
Kontos in July (R42) after Lewis and
Paulino went down. I took Justin Germano R43, but he stunk. Kontos has the
added benefit of not blowing his rookie status, so I can keep him for next
year. I had to take Simon (R44) and
waste my R45 on Troy Patten in August after Garza was gone.
Here again you
can see the added importance of supplemental picks to fill in for injuries. And
don’t forget those rookie relievers who are called up in June or later and
won’t make it to the 50 inning mark. Although, I just have Kontos this winter,
I had McGee and Yoshinori Tateyama last year. Although, I had to protect him,
Tateyama garnered an extra pick for me in R28 (Eddie Rosario).
Dylan Bundy, Eddie Rosario, Taylor Lindsay, Xavier Avery – the
first guy is an elite prospect. The rest are trading chips – at best, although
certainly the two infielders could grow into something terrific, I wouldn’t
hesitate to spend them, if needed. Bundy, then, is the one worth discussing. I
drafted him in the first round (R39)
after the June 2011 draft, but not until the 9th player overall that
month. I even drafted a player – Jim Johnson - ahead of him - not unreasonably
- as were Jemile Weeks, Bubba Starling, Danny Hultzen, Phillip Humber, Leonys
Martin, Casey Kotchman, and Tim Beckham. This was an historically strong draft.
Jurickson Profar was taken with the next pick and Francisco Lindor was taken in
the middle of the next round. We didn’t have much to go on other than the
glowing reports and mock drafts. I had Bundy at the top of my list among the
the 39th pick of the 2009-2011 supplemental
drafts corresponds to R40 of the pre 2009 drafts and post 2011 drafts. That is
the first round after the June draft. Before 2009, R43 was the last pick. Since
2012, R45 is the last pick.
attention to those June draft reviews – not just go by draft order: why one
team wants one player over another – is there is just a signing issue or a
rouge team philosophy on player acquisitions? How strong is the consensus? Is
the draft class a strong one or not? I didn’t draft anyone this year, although
Brian Buxton, for example, was on my list. I don’t remember if I listed him
higher than Davis and Moss or not.
Using my team as
an ridiculously small sample, let’s tally what
picks my talent came from – going back to the players I traded to get them. If
I traded multiple players – those points are divided amongst them. Let’s count most
of the useful relievers and bench guys as 1 point. Give Paulino a point, too.
Robertson, Moss, Montero, and Lewis get 2 points, because I said so, and I’m
giving Avila and the two shortstops three points. Encarnacion, Hill, Garza and
Wilson get four points. I think Dylan Bundy could easily fetch a four point player
right now, so he gets four, too. Shields, Granderson, and Adam Jones are in the
five echelon. Longoria, Cliff Lee, and Felix H. are eights. Miggy and Trout are
Before I leave you
with the distribution of talent by draft picks
used in its procurement, let me tell you what percentage of the players worth four
points or higher were either taken as prospects or bought with players taken as
prospects: 54% or 7 of 13. There is no heavy distribution of those players
towards the stronger end either. Every other name going by the list of players in
the paragraph above I either drafted as a prospect or traded for with players I
drafted as prospects if you go back to the start of their trade chain: EE, but ultimately not Hill; Garza, but not
C.J.; Bundy, not Shields; Grandy, not Adam Jones; Longo, not Cliff Lee; King
Felix, not Miggy; and, yes, Trout.
Keep in mind my
R14s are not typical R14s. They have been
generally towards the end of the first round. Anyone with early first round
picks – especially a first overall pick – would likely have more points there.
Remember, this is a small sample size, so you should, at least, blur the
numbers to make a smooth curve. But, here’s something interesting: notice the
big jumps at R21 and R28? Our league had been drafting in three stages: R14-R20
in mid February, R21-R27 in early March, R28-R35 in late March. That extra time
to ponder our next picks and get more intelligence on players’ health
apparently increases our chance of making a wise choice at the start of each