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More thoughts about batting order
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Maris should have batted third - and Mantle 2nd!

After understanding that importance of On Base Average, then reflecting back on the Yankees of my youth, I wondered why Roger Maris, who had record breaking power, batted in front of Mickey Mantle, who had Maris’s power, except was far more of an On Base machine. You would think it would have better to bat Mantle in front of Maris, so one of the power hitters more frequently had someone on base to power home. 

In the Filling Out the Line-Up Sheet article in the Strategies section I have a few suggestions about filling out the ideal batting order. There are many things to consider for a Scoresheet team – some of which also apply to real life teams. One of these is: 

4. The latest sabermetric consensus on batting orders goes something like this:

     1. highest OBA guy

2. best all-around hitter

3. high Slg., but low OBA

4. next best all around hitter

5-9 next best all around hitters

The thinking goes that often the number 3 hitter comes up with two outs and no one on base, so there is no point in wasting a high OBA in that spot. 

I’ve been dutifully following this advice, but I am wondering whether it is a mistake. Since the middle of May, my lead-off batter has been Mike Trout and my no. 2 hitter has been Miguel Cabrera. Those choices still make the most sense to me. However, those guys are so good, I found it hard to believe that my no. 4 hitter would wind up leading off more often than my no. 5 hitter. Perhaps, that is not the point. Perhaps, it is the fact that the number 3 hitter will lead off the fewest amount of times and that he will most often be batting with one or two outs already – reducing his chances of scoring no matter who is hitting after him. I am sure that is true, but I am not sure that trumps the fact that in most cases, the no. 4 hitter will eventually bat during the inning when Trout and Cabrera come up with no outs – or that the no. 5 hitter will lead off an inning more often than the clean-up (no. 4) hitter. 

Well, here are the facts: From May 18th to August 8th my Slick Silk Sox had 158 occasions when Trout came up with no outs and Miggy on deck. In 74% of those occasions, the no. 4 batter in my line-up did get to bat that inning. In 41% of the time, the no. 5 man batted. Looking at it another way, the clean-up hitter lead-off the next inning 26%, while the number 5 hitter lead-off 34%. 

Here is what I conclude: If your top three hitters have lower OBAs than mine (Curtis Granderson was my most often used no. 3 hitter with Adam Jones, then Edwin Encarnacion used generally against left-handers or if Granderson was hurt), then the amount of times your clean-up hitter leads off will be closer to the amount of times your no. 5 leads off. But, at an 8% difference, it seems well worth looking for the player with the higher ratio of OBA to Slugging to bat fifth instead of fourth. As for the no. 3 hitter, having a low On Base Average isn’t a terrible waste. I would group all of your best hitters who are not your lead-of man or no. 2 guy and reserve them for the middle of your order. Then among those, you would probably want to put the one with the highest SLG/OBA third and the one with the highest OBA/SLG fifth. 

Sabermetricly, the Yankees were half right to bat Roger Maris ahead of Mickey Mantle – as the 3rd and 4th hitters or the 4th and 5th hitters. Optimally, however, Mantle should have been the no. 2 hitter followed by Maris in the three spot. Let Elston Howard and Tom Tresh be the no. 4 and 5 hitters and drop Bobby Richardson and his .294 OBA below Joe Pepitone down to 7th or 8th in front of Clete Boyer or the pitcher.

John Carter