This
is the last week-end for fine tuning your play-off drive and post season roster. The one thing almost all of us could use
in a championship hunt is an extra knock out reliever or two. I myself have taken this step by trading one of my "trade bait"
prospects for Takashi Saito. I love his K/9 ratio and his 2.64 ERA should hold up considering his history and peripherals,
though they are not as good as they were in the National League. Adding this season in Fenway to Saito's four years with the
Dodgers, his career ERA is still an impressive 2.09. He gives me one of my nicest if not deepest bullpens ever with Rivera,
Thornton,
Migares, Robertson, Mujica, Donnelly, Perry, Seay, and DelCarmen.
I "scouted"
Saito using my Scoresheet League site clicking into Rosters with Major League Stats. From there it is easy to check every
team out of serious contention and see which outstanding relievers they have now who they likely wouldn't protect next year.
(Don't forget to check their group of starters for relievers who are listed as starters.) Here is how I would rank the American
League relievers well worth trading for who are not among the automatic protects (Mariano Rivera, Joe Nathan, Jonathan Papelbon,
and Joakim Soria). (Also excluded is Francisco Rodriguez - a fellow most veteran leagues would still have):
(stats as of Sept. 2 or Sept. 3, 2009 from FanGraphs)
Reliever
(age) Ing. ERA
K/9 K/BB GB/FB
Andrew
Bailey (25) 72 1.88 9.5 3.45 1.00
(rookie, always had high K, but never with such low BB or ERA)
Matt Thornton-L
(32) 61 2.67 10.8 4.29 1.25
(outstanding three of the last 4 seasons)
J.P. Howell-L
(26)
63 2.43 10.6 2.74 1.38
(now established with his second outstanding season)
Matt Guerrier (31) 64 2.38 6.0 3.91 1.05
(improved GB/FB, though '08 appears to have been an off year)
George
Sherrill-L (33) 53 1.87 7.8 2.38 0.84
(ERA last year due to poor control: 4.73, career: 3.46; now with Dodgers)
Jose Migares
-L (24) 51 2.28 7.9 2.14 0.81
(plus 0.00 in AAA (8 Ing.) and 0.87 in his MLB debut last year (10 Ing.))
Scott
Downs-L (33) 39 3.00 9.0 2.77 2.10
(DL twice with sprained toe; pitching well now; 1.78 & 2.17 last 2 years)
Takashi
Saito (29) 48 2.64 8.5 2.14 0.61
(K & G/F are way down, while BB are way up from his 3 Dodger years)
Jason
Frasor (32) 46 2.33 8.7
3.00 0.71
(lower BB/9 & ERA this year;
returned recently from toe injury)
David
Robertson (24) 40 3.38 13.5 2.86 0.73
(started
'09 with 15 AAA Ing. of 1.84 after similar results at every pro level)
Brad Ziegler (29) 59 3.20 6.1 2.00 2.98
(last year: 1.06 ERA in 50 Ing.
and 0.37 in 24 AAA Innings)
Hideki
Okajima-L(33) 54 3.19 8.2 2.58 0.60
(ERA of 2.61 last year with nearly identical peripherals as this year )
C.J. Wilson-L
(33)
62 3.19 10.0 2.46 2.19
(peripherals improved, but inconsistent year to year, last year's ERA : 6.02)
Daniel
Bard (24) 41 3.48 12.0 3.24 1.05
(averages 97.1 mph, '96 first rounder blasted through the Minors last year)
Edward
Mujica (29) 75 3.12 6.8 3.56 0.82
(thriving in San Diego thanks to improved control and more GB)
Joe Smith (25) 34 3.44 7.9
2.31 2.00
(+5 scoreless AAA ing.; 3rd year w/ stable ERA with fewer BBs more HRs)
David
Aardsma (27) 63 2.15 10.5 2.28 0.46
(his ERA was 5.55 last year and 6.40 before then)
Bobby
Jenks (28) 47 3.66 8.5
3.38 1.51
(may be considered by some managers to be worth protecting )
Rafael
Betancourt (34) 44 3.05 9.5 2.61 0.51
(missed June with groin injury; terrific every other year, 1.98 so far in CO)
Brandon
Lyon (30) 63 3.00 6.7 2.04 1.27
(had pneumonia in July, a horrendous outing in mid Aug., but good lately)
Fernando
Rodney (32) 70 3.36 8.3 1.96 1.75
(more GB and fewer K may have led
to no DL time due shoulder woes)
Darren
Oliver-L (38) 59 2.90 7.0 2.88 1.01
(peripherals improved, but inconsistent year to year, last year's ERA : 6.02)
Mark Lowe (29) 66 3.32 7.5
2.50 0.96
(improved from 5.37 last year due
to fewer walks and more GB)
Octavio
Dotel (35) 52 3.29 10.9 1.80 0.63
(has managed to keep his ERA steady,
while his BB have gone way up)
Frank
Francisco (29) 41 3.32 10.2 2.43 0.42
(had pneumonia in July, a horrendous outing in mid Aug., but good lately)
Brandon
Donnelly(38) 18 2.04 8.2 2.29 0.82
(due to come off D.L. from a sprained calf; hasn't been nearly this good since '04)
Dan Wheeler (28) 49 3.51 6.7 5.14 0.58
('05-'06 best years, '07 a disaster, '08 better despite lower K & GB, '09 more BB)
Ramon
Ramirez (28) 58 2.93 6.8 1.63 0.75
(2.64 ERA last year with a 1.30 G/F; his )
Chad Bradford (34)
8 3.38 6.8 1.13 2.75
(after elbow surgery and back problems this year, be leery until
BB rate settles)
If your contender just needs a few more innings to stave off AAA Pitching, then any of Alfredo Aceves, Shawn
Camp, D.J. Carrasco, Lance Cormier, Aaron Heilman, Shawn Kelley, Scott Linebrink, or Ryan Perry are useful thrown ins - so
is Kerry Wood if his shoulder un-stiffens. Fu-Te Ni appears to be a reliably competent lefty - so is real life team-mate Bobby
Seay, but not as much recently.
Manny DelCarmen has had an excellent season up until late July and has been frustrating since. Jim Johnson
was set to make this list, but has been roughed up in three of his last five outings - all immediately since his daughter
was born. Sean White's ERA after 64 innings is still an alluring 2.80 befitting of his 1.36 GB/FB. However, with less than
4.0 strikeouts per 9 innings at a ratio of 14 K to 10 walks - and no history of low ERA at any level where he spent a reasonable
amount of time, I'd prefer gambling on any of the above.
Now, if only my line-up was as strong as my bull-pen.
