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Young Stars and Projecting their Future
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Here are these players resorted somewhat roughly by how well they improved or sustained their level after 22 & 23. Draw any theories? Pass them on to scoresheet-talk (http://sports.groups.yahoo.com/group/scoresheet-talk/messages) mcscoresheet (http://sports.groups.yahoo.com/group/mcscoresheet/) or to myself directly (x8please@rogers.com).

 

My only conclusion is that age is by far the best indicator for improvement. If you combine all of the other indicators together, you have another good indicator – perhaps, even better than age. However, you need all of them. Any one of them by itself is useless or in combination with only one or two others is essentially useless.

 

Barry Bonds: very solid at 21/22, star level 1 at 23/24, level 2 at 25/26, level 3 at 27/28-28/29,

 back to level 2 until star level 5 at 36/37-39/40.                                                                 .61, .88,  .13, 34, B,  p6

Miguel Tejada: solid at 22, star at 24, big star plateau at 26-. . .                                          .33, .61,  .10, 05, A,  10

Omar Vizquel: defensive star only @22, star? at 25 & 28, star 32-35 (-34), still fine @38.   .70, .82, .07, 07, A+, 5T

Chuck Knoblauch: star? at 22/23, plateau 25/26-30/31 with a 2 year spike around 27.      1.48,1.47, .15, 40, B, 72

Manny Ramirez: solid at 21/22, star: 22/23-25-26 plateau: 26/27-29/30, he’s 33.               .58, .67, .15, 03,  D,  7

Shawn Green: solid? at 22, star? 26-27, star 28-29, star? 30-31, solid at 32. . .                    .29, .44, .08, 11,  D,   6

Ivan Rodriguez: OK at 19, solid at 20, better at 21, star? at 22, plateau: 26-32, spike at 28.74,.33, .03, 04, A+, 7

Will Clark: solid at 22, star 23-30 with a spike at 25, solid to 36 (BB:K soared to .78 @24)  .45, .50, .09. –x,  B,  ??

Robbie Alomar: star? 20-22, a mixture of star? - big star from 23-33, just solid 34-35.       .59, .66, .09, 55, A, ??

Edgar Renteria: solid 20/21 – 25/26, star? at 26/27, star at 27/28, solid since. (He’s 30.)   .62, .65, .09, 50, A, 33

Derek Jeter: star? at 21/22, plateau at 22/23 & through 30... with a big spike at 24/25.     47, .59, .11,  33, B,  4

Scott Rolen: star at 22, big star at 23, 28, and best year at 29 so far. . .                              .55, .66, .15,  19, B, 13

Jimmy Rollins: very solid at 22 moved into the star? level at 25 . . .                                       .44, .52, .08, 55, B, 31

Frank Thomas: big star 22 (191 ABs)-29 with a spike at 25/26, intermittent star in 30s.      .81,1.23, .25. 03, D, 29

Ken Griffey: ROY at 19, star at 20, big star at 21, level 3 star at 23-27, level 2 until 30.      .66,1.05, .16, 15, A-,  1?

Alex Rodriguez: not bad at 19/20, a superstar at 20/21 and still nearly up there at 30        .37,  .51, .11, 39, A,   3

Albert Pujols: big star at 21, a slightly even higher plain from 23-?. . . (will be 26)             1.04,1.22, .13, 03, C, 42

Vladimir Guerrero: solid 21, big star 22-... (very consistent since then. He’ll be 30.)               .44, .89, .09, 28, B,  2

Ellis Burks: solid at 22, star 23-25, solid?-star? to 38 with a 34-35 aged spike (BALCO?).    .42, 70,  .11,  36, B, r1

Jose Guillen: solid? 21-22, mostly stunk 23-26, star? at 27, now solid 28-29. . .                    .21.  .35, .07, 01, C, 24

Jose Canseco: solid at 21, huge spike at 23/24, star for 3 more years, then wobbly decline..32, .61, .13,  28, C, r15

Juan Gonzalez: star? from 20-31, with a spike at 23, and arguably 26 & 28.                         .24, .37, .07,04, D,   4

John Olerud: solid 20-34 with a huge spike at 23, star? plateau at 27-32.                            .81,1.15, .15, 00, C,   1
Adrian Beltre: solid-solid? 20-24, gigantic spike at 25, back to solid at 26 . . .                      .34, .39, .06, 17, B,   3

Gregg Jefferies: solid at 21, star? double spike at 25/26-26/27, useless at 28/29-          1.15,1.24, .10, 42, C, 1T

Michael Barrett: solid-solid? 22-26, star? at 27- ? (I don’t know. I’m just an AL guy.)           .82, .66, .08, 00, C,  6

Eric Chavez: solid at 20, star? at 22, star plateau 23-26, dropped to solid at 27. . .              .66, .41, .08,  12, B,  3

Travis Fryman: very solid: 21-31 with a large spike at 23/24, and minor spikes around 30.     .27, 31,  .07, 14, B, 39

Troy Glaus: solid at 22/23, big spike at 23/24, pretty much star? since . . .                          .50, .68, .20, 00, C, 36

Alex (Tor., etc.) Gonzalez: solid 22-30 with a very good year at 26.                                      .39, .35, .09, 19, A,  4

Alex (Fla.) Gonzalez: solid 22-?(will be 29), although he stunk at 23, and was a star? at 26. .13,  .17, .03, 16, A, 17

Carlos Baerga: solid at 21, nice curve up at 23-24, then down again, way down                      .65, 46, .05, 09, B, 67

Andruw Jones: very solid at 20, star?-star 21-28 . . .                                                             .74, .59, .09, 27, A-, 1

Rafael Furcal: star? at 20 - no change so far at 27. . .                                                           .91,  .43, .07, 51, B, 72

Delino DeShields: clearly solid at 21, but never improved. Last year as a starter: 32.             .63, .45, .10, 65, A, 12

Dave Martinez: solid-solid? from 22-32, had only one star? year at 31, played to 36.            .59, .40, .09, 36, C, r3

Ruben Sierra: solid at 20, star at 23 & 25, lost solidity by 30, until solid? 35-38.                 .48, .52, .07, 20, D, ??

Jerry Browne: solid when playing 21-28.                                                                                .78,1.06, .11, 17,  B, ??

Christian Guzman: weak starter at 21, OK? at 22, star? at 23, solid 24-26, solid? 27-?         .46, .27, .04, 57, B, --

Benito Santiago: star? at 22, never improved, but was still usually solid through 38.             .14,  .29, .05. 19, B, 1T

Pete Incaviglia: solid-solid? 22-32, but clearly downhill after 29.                                         .30, .29, .09, 11,  D, p8

Andre Thomas: given a 4 year to reach solidity 22-26, but couldn’t cut it.                          .16, .28, .02, 01, A, ??

Luis Rivas: starter at 21, but after 4 years as a starter never reached solidity.                  .37, .46, .06, 32, C, 55

Wil Cordero: thought to be solid at 20, injured at 24, no more shortstop = little value         .66, .41, .07, 22, C,   6

Phil Plantier: thought to be a star from 53 games @22, but had only one solid season at 24.60, .53, .13, 02, D, 83

Ben Grieve: solid from 22-24, then fizzled – never close to a star.                                        .69, .58, .13, 05, D,   1

Billy Ripken: solid for year at 22, then at 25. Otherwise, he struggled in 2729 at bats.     .91, .52, .06, 12, A-, r11

Wilton Guerrero: solid? 22-26, then useless.                                                                         .15, .22, .03, 31, B,  49

Junior Felix: solid? 21-22,  & 26, otherwise little value. Dominican’s actual age questioned.   .45, .20, .05, 21, D, 3T

Mark Lewis : starter at 21 (back in minors for 23 & 24), looked solid half of year at 25.      .36, .00, .00, 05, B,  9

Milt Cuyler: solid? at 22, but stunk thereafter.                                                                     .57, .16, .03, 49, B, 4T

Peter Bergeron: ditto.                                                                                                            .58, .32, .07, 12, B, 40

John Carter